Section 4: "9/18" Japan was also afraid of the destruction of the Kwantung Army

  Zhang Xueliang's change of allegiance. After Zhang Zuolin was assassinated, not only in Japan but also in the Northeast, a serious political turmoil emerged, with no leader and everyone waiting to see what would happen next. The Japanese military attempted to use the pretext of "maintaining law and order" and "protecting overseas Chinese" to exercise force and establish a pro-Japanese regime. Meanwhile, the National Revolutionary Army was pressing in on the borders, and the Northeast Zhang regime was facing enemies on both sides. At this moment, Zhang Xueliang adopted a strategy of "cold treatment".

  First, the circumstances of Zhang Zuolin's assassination were tightly sealed and kept secret, so that the Japanese invaders could not discern the truth and did not dare to make any rash moves. Secondly, in response to Japan's repeated provocations and military threats, a tolerant and restrained attitude was adopted to avoid causing Sino-Japanese conflicts. Thirdly, with regard to the Nanjing government's efforts to negotiate peace, the confrontation between the Nationalist army and the Fengtian army was eased, and the Fengtian army was gradually withdrawn back to Northeast China, consolidating the defense of the Northeast border. Finally, Zhang Xueliang sought to win over both old and new factions, aiming to take his father's place and occupy a central position in politics, grasping the military and political leadership power in Northeast China. After stabilizing the situation in Northeast China, he announced Zhang Zuolin's death and soon took office as the Director of Fengtian; shortly after, he was also appointed as the Commander-in-Chief of the Three Eastern Provinces (concurrently serving as the Commander of Fengtian Security), thus grasping the military and political power in Northeast China.

  Under the leadership of Zhang Xueliang, the new faction, guided by the idea of "stopping internal strife and resisting external humiliation", advocated for an end to civil war and the realization of national unity and self-reliance. After taking power, Zhang Xueliang patiently persuaded the old guard to abandon their separatist ideas, gradually winning them over to the goal of unified national salvation. At the same time, he established his authority and firmly resisted the pro-Japanese faction and obstructionists. Thanks to Zhang's efforts, negotiations for cooperation between the Nationalist Party and the Fengtian clique made rapid progress, with the basic plan for the Northeast's allegiance switch essentially settled by mid-July. However, Japanese imperialism saw the allegiance switch as a major threat to their "Manchurian-Mongolian rights", and resorted to every means to obstruct it, leading to a struggle between Zhang Xueliang and Japan over national independence versus colonial invasion. Japan's basic strategy was to use military threats to exert political pressure, with diplomats taking the lead and military and political figures alternately obstructing, in an attempt to force Zhang Xueliang to submit to Japanese control.

  Zhang Xueliang succeeded Zhang Zuolin as the commander of the Northeastern Army and soon after, on June 25th, the Japanese Consul in Mukden, Lin Shiying, advised him: "For now, the Northeast should prioritize defending its borders and ensuring the safety of its people. Do not take a conciliatory attitude towards the South." On July 16th, Lin Shiying visited Zhang Xueliang again and warned that because the Nationalist Government was advocating for revolutionary diplomacy, unilaterally abolishing treaties with various countries, and attempting to recover concessions by force, cooperating with the South would be no different from opposing Japan. On the 19th, Consul Lin visited Zhang Xueliang once more and handed over a letter from the Japanese government stating: "Japan has never had any intention of interfering in internal affairs, but if you betray Zhang Zuolin's policy and lightly compromise with the South, the consequences will be such that Japan cannot ignore them." Zhang Xueliang retorted to Lin: "Can I report to the Nanjing Government whether Japan is unwilling for China to unify or whether the Northeast cannot change its flag due to Japanese interference?" Lin was left speechless. However, on the 20th, the Commander of the Kwantung Army, Ugaki, issued a stern warning to Zhang Xueliang.

  Japan launched the "September 18 Incident" because Zhang Xueliang's betrayal was irreversible. Due to Zhang Xueliang's illusions about Japan, he adopted a policy of non-resistance, resulting in the loss of the three northeastern provinces. In 1990, when Zhang Xueliang accepted an interview with Japanese journalists, he did not mention Chiang Kai-shek's secret telegram but instead mentioned that Sun Ke, the head of the Executive Yuan at the time, had given a directive to "handle it accordingly", implying that the central government was irresponsible. This is equivalent to Zhang Xueliang taking responsibility for non-resistance. So why didn't Zhang Xueliang resist? He explained that he made an error in judgment. He believed that when judging something, one should "stand on the other side's standpoint and consider their environment, situation, and interests". Therefore, his judgment was that Japan's actions would not only be unfortunate for China but also bring international condemnation and bad consequences for Japan itself. "Japan used military action to provoke us, so I gave the order of non-resistance." "If I had really known that Japan wanted to start a war, I might have fought them at the time". Scholars have different opinions on whether Chiang Kai-shek had given Zhang Xueliang an order of non-resistance. Japanese scholars believe that "considering his current situation, he had no choice but to say so". However, regardless of whether Zhang Xueliang was executing Chiang's orders or not, he must bear the historical responsibility for losing national territory. Zhang Xueliang deeply regretted how he handled the Northeast issue.

  The 9.18 Incident was initially a probing action, and the "9.18" Incident was actually more of a bold move by the Japanese Army, especially the Kwantung Army and other radical factions (who were dissatisfied with the cautious policy of invasion by the then-cabinet government) to test the waters, but the Chinese army did not resist, and it unexpectedly achieved great success in one blow. The original intention was to force Zhang Xueliang to compromise, but due to the lack of any resistance, it boosted the morale of the Japanese military, leading to a large-scale military occupation. At that time, Japan's Northeastern forces had only about 20,000 troops, which were no match for the nearly 400,000-strong Northeastern Army. Before the 9.18 Incident in 1931, the military comparison between China and Japan was that the regular Japanese army in the three northeastern provinces had only two brigades of the Second Division and six guard battalions, totaling 10,400 people, with 10,000 local soldiers (veterans), and 3,000 police officers. A total of 23,400 people. Japan did not begin to equip its domestic troops with domestically produced tanks and armored vehicles until the summer of '31, and the Kwantung Army had not yet received any; the only Japanese troops that could provide rapid support were the two divisions stationed in Korea, totaling 30,000 people. In contrast, the Northeastern Army stationed in the three northeastern provinces had more than 200,000 troops, with another 110,000 main force troops from the Northeastern Army in the Pingjin area, which could quickly return to the northeast. Japan did not have comprehensive preparations for a full-scale war against China at home, and Japan was fundamentally unprepared for a large-scale war at the time of the 9.18 Incident. The Japanese army stationed in Korea even feared that the Kwantung Army would be defeated and urgently telegraphed back to Japan requesting "rescue for the Kwantung Army!" (From Nishizawa Teiichi's book "Emperor Hirohito and His Era"). It can be seen that Japan's occupation of the Northeast was a direct result of the radical faction of the military forcing its way in, and Zhang Xueliang's failure to resist. As a result of the 9.18 Incident, the Kwantung Army's power expanded rapidly, with its troop strength reaching over 700,000 at its peak.

  Appendix: Brief data on the troops under the Northeast Army at the time of the September 18 Incident

  After the Northeast Flag Replacement, the Northeast Army was organized into 25 infantry brigades, 6 cavalry brigades, and 10 artillery regiments. In September 1930, Zhang Xueliang supported Chiang Kai-shek in the Central Plains War with his 9 elite brigades totaling 100,000 men, led by Xu Zongzhi and Wang Shuchang into Shanhai Pass. After the Central Plains War, the 9 brigades that entered the pass, along with their affiliated units (3 cavalry brigades and artillery, engineering, etc.), were stationed in the Pingjin area. In July 1931, to suppress the anti-Chiang and anti-Zhang war of Shi Yousan, another 3 infantry brigades and 2 artillery regiments totaling 80,000 men from Northeast China were deployed into the interior. Adding He Zhuguo's brigade stationed at Shanhai Pass, at this time, the elite infantry and most of the artillery of the Northeast Army were distributed in Pingjin, Hebei, and Chahar. The 12 infantry brigades, 3 cavalry brigades, and provincial defense brigades left behind in Northeast China had relatively poor equipment compared to those inside the pass. Due to the long-standing anti-Soviet stance of the Northeast military authorities, especially after the 1929 Sino-Russian conflict over the Chinese Eastern Railway, the main purpose of the troop deployment was to counter the Soviet Union. On the eve of the September 18 Incident, there were 400,000 regular troops in Northeast China (conservative estimate).

  Specifically stationed at:

  Liaoning Garrison:

  The 7th Independent Division of Wang Yizhe's troops stationed in Shenyang

  The 12th Independent Brigade of Zhang Tingxu's troops stationed in Jin County

  The 20th Independent Division is stationed in Zhengjiatun, passing through Wubu.

  The 3rd Cavalry Brigade of Zhang Shusen's troops is stationed in Tongliao.

  The 1st Detachment of Provincial Defense is stationed in Zhishan Department and garrisoned in Shancheng Town.

  The 2nd Provincial Defense Brigade of Zhang Haipeng's troops is stationed in Tongnan.

  Public Security Corps (formerly the 20th Division) Huang Xiansheng's unit, stationed in Shenyang;

  The Heavy-Duty Guidance Team of Niu Yuanfeng's Department is stationed at Gou Bangzi.

  Northeast Air Force, Navy and Gendarmerie Headquarters are all stationed in Shenyang.

  Jilin Garrison

  Detached as the 21st Brigade under Zhao Zixiang (later replaced by Zhang Zhigang), stationed in Ning'an.

  The 22nd Separate Brigade of Su Dechun's troops stationed in Shuangcheng

  The 23rd Independent Division of Li Guilin's troops stationed in Changchun

  The 24th Independent Division of Li Du's troops stationed in Yilan

  The 25th Independent Division Zhang Zuojun's unit is stationed in Jilin.

  The 26th Independent Brigade under Xing Zhanqing's command, stationed in Harbin;

  The 28th Independent Division of Ding Chao's troops is stationed in Harbin.

  The 4th Cavalry Brigade of Chang Yaochen's division is stationed in Nongan.

  The 1st Brigade of Shengfang Defense is stationed in Fangzheng, led by Sun He Xi.

  The 2nd Brigade of Sheng Province Defense Army, led by Wang Shaonan, stationed in Jiaohe.

  The 10th Battalion of Artillery Mu Chun-chang's unit is stationed in Changchun;

  Border Defense Corps Garrison Brigade Feng Zhanhai Department, stationed in Jilin;

  Harbin Special Zone Public Security Corps Wang Zhiyao Brigade, stationed in Jilin.

  Mountain Forest Defense Corps Zhao Weixiang Detachment stationed in Yanshou

  Heilongjiang Garrison:

  The 1st Brigade of Provincial Defense Infantry under Zhang Dianjiu's command was stationed in Lantun.

  The 2nd Brigade of Provincial Defense Infantry, under Su Bingwen's command, was stationed in Hailar.

  The 1st Cavalry Brigade of Hebei Province Defense Force, led by Wang Nanping, was stationed in Weihai.

  The 2nd Cavalry Brigade of Shengjing Provincial Defense Army was stationed in Keshan and Baiquan under the command of Wu Songlin.

  The 2nd Independent Cavalry Brigade is stationed in Manzhouli.

  The 9th Independent Artillery Battalion of Park Byung-seon's unit is stationed in Taean town.

  Border Defense Army Garrison Brigade Xu Baozhen's unit, stationed in Qiqihar;

  Xing'an Tun Kenjun Garden Chonggu Department, stationed in Solon; Bao'an Brigade Dong Lianfang Department, stationed in Qiqihar.

  Army side

  After Zhang Xueliang's downsizing, the Northeastern Army still had around 400,000 main forces with decent combat effectiveness. The equipment was uncountable due to the high production capacity of the Northeastern Arsenal, which could rank top in East Asia and arm a regiment every day. The rifle models were Type 65 and Type 79, and the mortar was the 16-year model. There is no record of the number of tanks in the Northeastern Army at that time. It is recorded that Zhang Zuolin dispatched one tank squadron during the Zhang-Jiang War, and the number should be very limited. In addition, the Zhang family had a special fondness for artillery, and it seemed that they could not independently manufacture tanks before Japan took over the Northeastern Arsenal.

  Air Force:

  During the heyday of the Northeast Army (i.e., during Zhang Zuolin's rule), it was equipped with 250-300 aircraft, divided into five air forces. The Northeast Arsenal did not have the technology to manufacture aircraft, and all aircraft were purchased or donated by powerful countries, or captured on the battlefield. Before the Northeast Flag Replacement, the Northeast Air Force had around 200 aircraft, including about 150 fighter jets. The Northeast Army's aircraft were mainly purchased from France and Czechoslovakia. In 1929, due to the Sino-Russian War, the Northeast Air Force suffered heavy losses, so Zhang Xueliang imported a large number of new-style aircraft from France. Before September 18th, the Northeast Air Force had over 100 aircraft, mostly new models.

  Navy:

  The Northeastern Navy had 21 warships of various sizes, with a total tonnage of 32,200 tons and a fleet of 3,300 officers and men. The main force "Hai Chi" was the largest cruiser in China at that time, and there were also "Hai Chen", "Zhen Hai", "Wei Hai", "Tong An", "Yong Xiang", "Chu Yu", "Jiang Li", "Ding Hai" and other warships.

  "At 9:18", the military strength comparison between the Northeast Army and the Japanese Kwantung Army was 8,000 people in the Northern Grand Camp vs. 3,000 people in the Kwantung Army, and the military strength comparison within Fengtian Province was approximately 60,000-90,000 people in the Northeast Army vs. 10,000 people in the Kwantung Army (in September 1931, the Japanese Kwantung Army had a force of 10,500 people, which was the Japanese Second Division

  In terms of equipment, the Chinese army had an advantage, and the Northeast Army had a local military superiority. Moreover, the main force of 250,000 troops from Rehe, Jehol, and Shanhaiguan could also quickly come to reinforce. Due to Japan's relatively scarce resources, it was unable to engage in large-scale protracted warfare. At that time, Japan was also divided into two factions: the war faction and the peace faction. If they suffered a fierce counterattack at the beginning, the peace faction would inevitably gain the upper hand, and there was a great possibility that Northeast China would not fall.

  The Northeast China Garrison and the Japanese army were compared in terms of strength, the Northeast Army had an absolute advantage in numbers, and also had a significant advantage in equipment. The Kwantung Army did not have air-armed forces at the time of the incident, and was not even equipped with high-tech weapons such as "Czech light machine guns" in terms of light weapons. If there were no orders not to resist, if deployed properly, the Japanese invasion would be almost impossible to succeed.