Chapter Fifty-Seven Entering the Tent

  It was such a situation that Tan Yanqin hoped to see what kind of attitude the old master had. Although the old master was not Su Qin or Zhang Yi, he was deeply strategizing and had long been convinced by him. His opinions were to some extent his own action indicator. This simple two-word telegram made Tan Yanqin see another hope, before this it was just one of his guesses, and the old master's telegram confirmed this guess - not necessarily a stumbling block!

  "When the war starts, the first to make noise is Qingliu. No matter from which angle you look at it, Qingliu will be the main force in the war. After all, standing and talking doesn't hurt their waist, and the ones bleeding in battle are not these officials. Moreover, they can gain fame for themselves through this good deed. Where else can you find such a good thing? So, Lord Zhongtang, don't worry too much about Gong Shifu's attitude. In this situation, whoever jumps out to oppose will definitely be known as the sinner of the ages. Who dares to speak of peace at the beginning of the war?" Tan Yanqian said with a smile.

  Li Hongzhang got up at a fixed time, and since he had already decided to temporarily join Li Hongzhang's government, Tan Yankai quickly entered the role and became a very special member of Li Hongzhang's think tank - he was temporarily joining this political group, and he wouldn't stay here for too long. According to Tan Yankai's memory, the historical "petition on the carriage" incident occurred after the signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki, at which time the imperial examination had already begun, although the outbreak of the First Sino-Japanese War was somewhat abrupt and greatly ahead of schedule, but Tan Yankai knew that this war would not be so easily concluded, before the signing he would definitely leave here because of the imperial examination, and he could to the greatest extent possible avoid involvement with the Treaty of Shimonoseki.

  Tan Yanqing wants to make a difference in this era. He doesn't dare to hope that he can completely reverse the suffering China will experience over the next few decades, but he is willing to take one step forward with all his might. In his heart, there is a relatively detailed "roadmap", which has a general plan for what to focus on during each period, and training new-style troops is the most core content. Because his contemporary Yuan Datou took this path and eventually became the emperor of China, but training new troops was something that happened after the First Sino-Japanese War, now the most important thing is "reputation"!

  Just like the "reputation" in later games, the higher your reputation value, the more and better talents you will attract. The higher your reputation value, the more powerful you are to do things that others dare not or cannot do, and the less you will be disturbed by other external factors in the process of doing things. Wanting to do things can't leave "reputation value" - Yuan Datou didn't intervene in Korean affairs. He wouldn't have had this reputation value to train the Beiyang New Army; The most obvious example is Sun Yat-sen, whose reputation value was high enough to balance Yuan Datou to some extent. And Tan Yankei wanted to take a middle road - he wanted both gun barrels and "reputation value". The imperial examination was competing for reputation value, the "Strong Learning Digest" was competing for reputation value, and running industries was also competing for reputation value...

  Similarly, Tan Yankai participated in Li Hongzhang's intervention in the First Sino-Japanese War. In this process, Tan was able to take a step forward, although he had no bottom line in his heart. However, this was also an opportunity to gain prestige and build good relations with the Beiyang Group led by Li Hongzhang - in his view, this relationship would bring more benefits than what he gained from Zhang Zhidong. This is not because Tan Yankai hoped to fully integrate into the Beiyang system; under Li Hongzhang's personnel policy, he would never have had this opportunity, at least as long as "Old Master Li" was alive. However, through friendly relations, he could obtain more resources from Beiyang, which is what he valued!

  "After all, history has already been distorted to an extreme. With my involvement, it can't get any worse, right?" Tan Yanqian thought to himself.

  "The Empress Dowager's birthday is just around the corner, and if things go on like this, it won't be a good solution..." Li Hongzhang said.

  "It's not a solution, I remember Shen Guifen, the Minister of War during the Tongzhi Emperor's reign, once said: 'It is impossible to fight forever, rather than defeat and surrender, it's better not to start a war!' I think only the first half of this sentence is correct, while the second half is wrong!" Tan Yankai said.

  "Oh?" Li Hongzhang's eyebrows moved slightly.

  "Japan is developing its army and expanding its navy with 60 to 70% of its national budget, how long can such a country last? Unless it follows the example of Western powers and launches wars against others, obtaining reparations or even ceding territory, thereby opening up markets for commercial dumping, there will be no way out. Let's take a look at the countries around Japan - America is too far away; Russia is too big and powerful, not one that Japan can afford to provoke, leaving only our great Qing dynasty. It's not that we want to fight, but Japan's national situation has forced us into a war with them, Japan has already mounted the chariot of war and cannot stop!" Tan Yankai said.

  "Then Japan won't be afraid of joint intervention by Western powers?" Li Hongzhang asked.

  "Japan is naturally afraid of the intervention of Western powers, but to what extent the intervention will go is another matter. As for the intervention of Western powers in the late-born, it has been considered for a long time, and the conclusion drawn is that it is not enough to intimidate Japan, and they may even be optimistic about it and persuade Japan to declare war on our great Qing!"

  "What? Don't they fear that their own interests in the Great Qing will be harmed? Don't they fear Japan becoming powerful?" Li Hongzhang said.

  "This is just a one-sided judgment of the late birth, and this topic is quite broad, it's not something that can be clarified in a few words. If His Excellency needs to, I can go back and think carefully about writing a memorial to present to Your Excellency for review. However, I did think of a phrase that suits the current situation - ants cannot eat an elephant, but they can hurt it! Japan is not capable of doing anything to the Qing dynasty, at least not now, but it can cause us significant losses. The Western powers see our great Qing as a piece of fat meat, everyone wants to come and take a bite, Your Excellency has spent decades training the Beiyang Fleet into an army, this is not good news for the Western powers, they would be delighted to see the Beiyang Fleet being rebuilt by Japan's hands, even if it means giving some benefits to Japan. If Your Excellency puts yourself in their shoes and thinks about it, wouldn't you do the same?" Tan Yankai said.

  Li Hongzhang closed his eyes and thought for a moment. With difficulty, he spat out one word: "Yes!" After finishing speaking, it seemed as if he had just suffered from a serious illness, and his whole body relaxed.

  "The Western powers' attitude is unclear, but at least it can be judged that they do not think highly of Japan and do not believe that Japan can defeat the Great Qing. However, they are extremely pleased to see China and Japan fight each other, so that they can reap the greatest benefits from the situation. The war cannot last forever, and there will eventually be an end to it. The Empress Dowager's birthday ceremony has been prepared for many years, and according to her temperament, she will not cancel her own birthday ceremony because of a war. Of course, due to the Qing court's dignity, the Empress Dowager cannot openly seek peace at the risk of being seen as weak, but seeking peace is the mainstream view in the long run... Your Excellency can prepare for war on one hand and prepare to make peace with Japan on the other. If the war is lost, it will be extremely unfavorable for Your Excellency, which goes without saying. But if the war is won, it will greatly boost Your Excellency's prestige, so this war must not be lost at all costs. Japan has taken the risk of national collapse to launch this war, and if Japan wins, they will definitely make outrageous demands. The treaty that will be signed will be an unprecedented humiliation for the Great Qing, and in that case, Your Excellency will have no place to stand." Tan Yankai said solemnly.

  Tan Yanqing can see that Li Hongzhang is still seeking peace at this time, otherwise he would not have urgently summoned the envoys of various countries after receiving the news of the outbreak of war, hoping to use diplomatic means to resolve the Sino-Japanese War. Li Hongzhang's psychology of seeking peace will play a crucial role in the First Sino-Japanese War. Originally, China was already struggling to counter Japan with local forces, and if the commander-in-chief had a mind that disliked war and hoped for luck, then the sinking of the Japanese ship Matsushima would be in vain, and everything would return to the old path of history.

  This was not what Deng Shichang wanted to see. Although in the preparation for the Sino-Japanese War, China undoubtedly fell behind, it did not mean that China would lose so badly, especially now that even Jiyuan had sunk the Matsushima. There was no reason why a miracle could not occur. In his view, "miracles" were the most unreliable things, but he truly hoped that a miracle would happen to the Beiyang Fleet. As long as there was a glimmer of hope, he would not give up!

  —

  Li Hongzhang stood up and said: "Zu An is indeed a genius of the world, asking you one question made me suddenly enlightened, many things have become clear. It seems that Ji Meng's strong suggestion to invite Zu An into the government at the beginning was correct! Zu An, go back and rest well, write down the attitude of various countries towards this war as soon as possible for my reference!"

  "Your Excellency Zhong Tang, I have one more thing to say, but I don't know if it's suitable to mention!" Tan Yanqian said.

  "It doesn't matter what you say!"

  "What is Master Zhong's true intention, does he advocate for war or peace?!" Tan Yanqian asked.

  Li Hongzhang remained silent for a moment before saying, "As Guo An said, the Empress Dowager and everyone in the imperial court want to take advantage of this opportunity to make some noise. This idea has been around for ten years, but it was put on hold due to the Sino-French War. To be honest with you, I have always wanted to fight this war. However, our naval forces have not added any new ships in years, while Japan has been frantically purchasing warships. In a battle of attrition, even if we fight with all our might, it's uncertain whether we can emerge victorious. Moreover, the Empress Dowager hopes for an early peace treaty to celebrate her birthday. If this war drags on, how can it be stopped in a short period? I want to vent my frustration, but neither internal nor external circumstances are favorable. Considering the timing and situation, there is only one option... to seek peace!"

  Tan Yanqing bowed deeply and said: "I understand now, but I would like to suggest to the Grand Minister that if you want to make demands while maintaining your reputation and not being ridiculed by outsiders, there is only one way: to be tough with Japan to the end. In military terms, we cannot hesitate or waver... To be honest, I don't think this war will go well. The Grand Minister is taking on a whole country alone, which is a grave mistake in military strategy. As a humble scholar who shares the same boat as the Grand Minister, I have only one thing to say: War is an extension of politics, and the agreements reached at the negotiating table are the result of war returning to politics."

  Whatever happens will be truly reflected in the agreement, I hope Lord Zhongtang will be cautious!

  After finishing speaking, Tan Yanqian bowed and walked out of Li Hongzhang's study in big strides. The only one left in the study was Li Hongzhang, who lowered his head and sank into thought: "War is the continuation of politics..."

  Entering the curtain Li Hongzhang, this choice is a disaster for Tang Shaoyi, and he also knows that it is very difficult to get his reuse with Li Hongzhang's temperament. In order to compete for his own weight in Li Hongzhang's mind, he had to tie the Sino-Japanese War closely with Li Hongzhang's personal political fate, and only then could he force Li Hongzhang to go all out against Japan. As for how effective this "strategic intimidation" is, it still needs to be tested by time.

  According to Tang Yan's understanding of the modern military of China and Japan, after the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan undoubtedly had the upper hand. However, this "upper hand" was a powerful navy. If Japan didn't have this navy, its threat to China would be reduced by at least 80%. Li Hongzhang's generation was already half in the grave, but he was still young and had a long way to go. He didn't want to live under the shadow of the Japanese fleet, wanting to narrow the gap between China and Japan over the next twenty years. In short, it was to curb the scale of the Japanese navy - either cut off the milk of the Japanese navy or let the Beiyang Fleet fight to the death, striving for a result where both sides were severely damaged, or even where both navies were completely destroyed!

  Cutting off the financial resources of the Japanese Navy and winning this war are not much different. The indemnity of the Treaty of Shimonoseki gave the Japanese Navy a second chance to take off, making Japan have the opportunity to call Russia in ten years. And twenty years later, World War I thoroughly established its position as a world power.

  In Tan's view, to make the Japanese navy "wean" must start with the amount of compensation in the Treaty of Shimonoseki. Winning Japan is somewhat unrealistic, after all, the old lady's birthday is there, and it is likely that China has only positioned the battle in Korea as a "local conflict" rather than a "full-scale war". The difference between them lies in Japan's willingness to use national power for military adventures. Although on the surface, the Japanese navy and the Beiyang Fleet are evenly matched, or even slightly weaker. Now, the combat experience of the Jiyuan ship seems to have added a favorable note to this argument, but Tan does not think so - there are too many accidental factors in war, good luck cannot always accompany one side, and the Beiyang is only a local force. Japan's actual strength is far superior to that of the Beiyang, just like the Japanese will never be lucky all the time.

  This private conversation with Li Hongzhang set the tone for Tang Shaoyi's approach to the First Sino-Japanese War - seeking peace, but using war as leverage. Perhaps after this war ended, the treaty signed would not be called the Treaty of Shimonoseki, and its name might change, but one thing was certain: the treaties between China and Japan could never again follow the old historical path!

  Qiu He was also a helpless move, this is the realistic choice at that time, not something that Tan Yankai alone could decide on. For him, opportunities were fleeting - whenever conflicts arose between China and foreign countries, the Qing dynasty's elite would seize the opportunity to gain merit for themselves, after all, chances to make a name for oneself didn't come every day. Strong demands for war would make someone a hero, becoming a famous scholar. Tan Yankai's opportunity was to take advantage of the Qing elite's mighty momentum at the beginning of the war, forcing Li Hongzhang and the Japanese to engage in a decisive battle, boldly dispatching more troops to Korea, preparing for a collective naval action to fight Japan on land and sea.

  The momentum of the Qing government can last for how long depends entirely on Li Hongzhang's performance. Once a defeat like the Battle of the Yellow Sea in history occurs or Korea is lost, the momentum of the Qing government will also come to an end. The two points that Li Hongzhang wants to rely on are: first, Empress Dowager Cixi wants to celebrate her birthday happily and does not want to be affected by the war; second, he wants to use foreign powers to intervene. It is impossible for Tang Yanqi to dispel Li Hongzhang's illusions about foreign powers, but it is not difficult for him to do so now. The current task is to produce ironclad evidence that foreign powers will not intervene in this Sino-Japanese war, causing Li Hongzhang's foothold to collapse completely and forcing him to fight Japan desperately!

  Tan Tingxiang has now entered Li Hongzhang's government as a staff member, so he has the right to call up the materials stored in the Zhili Governor's Office - Li Hongzhang has a special team of staff members who help him translate various foreign newspapers, whose richness far exceeds Tan Tingxiang's resources. This is also the need for China's diplomatic system to rely on Li Hongzhang alone. Whether Li Hongzhang acknowledges it or not, the person in charge of China's diplomatic work with various powers is not that greedy ghost Guo Songtao in the General Affairs Office, but rather Li Hongzhang himself. Therefore, Li Hongzhang has concentrated here the best diplomatic talent and top translation talent in China, as well as the richest data library.

  Outsiders only see Li Hongzhang dominating the Qing political scene, of course people like Sheng Xuanhuai bear the mark of the Li family in the business world, but only by delving into Li Hongzhang's staff can one know that his achievements today are not accidental, nor are they solely due to Li Hongzhang being promoted by Zeng Guofan.