Chapter 27: Knowing how many bowls of plain rice one eats
Since the First Sino-Japanese War, when the Eight-Nation Alliance's fleet defeated China, the world powers' naval strength in Asia was greatly damaged, with Russia suffering the greatest losses. Two newly built battleships sank in the Bohai Sea, and due to Russia's financial resources, shipbuilding level, and geographical location, its naval power in East Asia never recovered.
Another country that suffered greatly was Japan, after being ambushed three times, the main force of the Imperial Japanese Navy basically lost one empty, and with great difficulty, using the Qing government's compensation to buy 3 heavy cruisers from Britain, one was destroyed again, equivalent to a reduction of one-third of the naval power. However, this maritime nation Japan clearly attaches more importance to the navy than Russia, this land country, immediately raised funds and ordered two relatively advanced London-class battleships from Britain.
The British, in order to unite with Japan to curb Russia's development in Asia, not only sold a London-class battleship that had just been put into service directly to Japan but also dispatched engineering and technical personnel to come to Japan to help the Japanese domestically replicate the London-class battleships. From 1900 to 1902, the Japanese bought and built more than 30 warships, including two London-class battleships, four heavy cruisers, eight destroyers, and a small number of auxiliary ships, not only restoring the strength of the Japanese Navy but also further improving the level of its warships compared to before the First Sino-Japanese War.
After the First Sino-Japanese War, Russia gained a large amount of occupied land and ports in Northeast China, and also dispatched a large number of troops to enter Northeast China, not only provoking Japan but also giving the old powerful country Britain a sense of crisis. In order to counter Russia's ambitions, the British spared no effort to win over Japan and reached an agreement to jointly protect the interests of both countries in China and Korea, with the spearhead directly pointing at Russia. The two countries, Japan and Russia, which had been watching each other with hostility, began to flex their muscles and prepare for a fight again in Northeast China and the Korean Peninsula after a 2-year recovery period.
Apart from Russia and Japan, the British attention to Asia has decreased significantly during this period. This is not because they intend to give up China, but because they, along with the Dutch and Germans, have been fighting an extremely tough battle in South Africa for over two years, finally achieving victory in early 1902. However, they did not gain any benefits and instead showed signs of fatigue. Otherwise, they would not have given Japan so many concessions, allowing Japan to contain Russia's expansion in Northeast China.
The remaining French and Germans, due to the tense situation in Europe, have withdrawn their attention back to their own nests, and for East Asia, they basically want to maintain the status quo, and temporarily do not have the power to expand.
In the past two years, within the scope of East Asia, it was actually the Americans who arrived last in Asia that were the most active. Since occupying the Philippines, the United States has been strengthening its armed forces there, not only dispatching troops from home but also transferring the battleship "Oregon" from the east coast to join the Pacific Fleet. Due to Spain's weakness in the Spanish-American War, the US paid a small price for great gains, which encouraged the US government and accelerated its entry into the imperialist era. However, the Americans have not yet had any thoughts about Taiwan, as the Philippine independence uprisings still frequently erupt, and suppressing these uprisings has taken up most of the energy of the Pacific Fleet and the US military stationed in the Philippines.
Time quickly arrived in 1903, when the Qing government felt its own crisis and began to make some changes. Not only did it establish universities in Shanxi, Hubei, Nanjing and other places, but Empress Dowager Cixi also lifted the curtain and personally met with foreign envoys. The government took a small step forward, and the people took a big step forward. Various newspapers and societies were established, and from different angles, they began to prescribe medicine for the Chinese nation's ailments. From monarchism to republicanism, from complete Westernization to using Western methods in Chinese ways, all sorts of discussions emerged endlessly, and various small-scale uprisings broke out one after another. The entire land of China presented a picture of revolutionary fervor and reformist zeal.
Liu Ye learned from the Ministry of Internal Affairs that in Japan, several influential ethnic self-help organizations have been established, including two names that Liu Ye is very familiar with: Zhang Taiyan and Sun Wen. For these two pioneers of anti-Qing and national salvation, Liu Ye neither had a sense of reverence nor disdain, not because Liu Ye's thinking was deeper than theirs, but because Liu Ye really didn't know much about them. His limited understanding of the two came mainly from textbooks, movies, TV dramas, and some literary works, and later generations' evaluations of them were also different, with both praise and criticism, so Liu Ye didn't know which evaluations were true and which were false.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs' intelligence not only included Zhang Taiyan and Sun Wen, but also Yuan Shikai, the successor of the Beiyang government. As for Yuan Shikai, the first president of the Republic of China, Liu Fei knew very little about him. In later generations' textbooks and literary works, this president was basically portrayed as a villain, but Liu Fei knew that those were not credible. A person who could become a minister in the Beiyang government and be elected as the first president of the Republic of China couldn't possibly have no redeeming qualities at all, it didn't make sense. As for whether President Yuan was treacherous or loyal, Liu Fei didn't have the energy to study his character and ambitions. Even if Liu Fei wanted to research him, he didn't have the ability to do so, and even if he did want to befriend President Yuan, it's not like the president would necessarily agree.
Although Liu didn't know much about these famous figures and wasn't particularly interested, his limited historical knowledge told him that with their appearance, the Qing government's downfall was not far off. Once the Qing government fell, it would be the Republic of China. Although there wouldn't be direct military intervention from foreign powers in the short term, each warlord and faction relied on one or several external powers, fighting each other domestically.
As for whether to participate in the struggle on the mainland, Liu Yubai began to think about it from the time of the First Sino-Japanese War, but he never thought it through clearly. Firstly, relying on Taiwan's current military and economic strength, rashly landing on the mainland may not necessarily yield good results. The Qing government of this era may not be formidable, but almost all major port cities on the entire mainland, from Guangzhou in the south to Dalian in the north, are under the control of foreign powers. Whichever place you choose to land will inevitably touch upon the interests of foreign powers. If foreign powers were to choose between the mainland and Taiwan markets, it is estimated that no one would choose to protect this tiny island of Taiwan, as the mainland has a consumer market of hundreds of millions of people, while Taiwan's population does not even account for 1% of the mainland's.
Some readers have said that you can make deals with the powerful countries, such as providing them with advanced weapons and technology in exchange for their support or non-interference. I think this view is a bit naive. Most European countries are in China for trade, what kind of weapon can you use to offset the benefits of trade? Even if you come up with an earth-shattering invention, I reckon the powerful countries will just send troops to take it by force. In their eyes, conquering the Qing dynasty was worth opening up the market, so taking Taiwan by force is a good idea as long as there's enough profit to be made.
Let me give you an example. Suppose a small company in Zhongguancun invents a more advanced operating system that would take away most of Microsoft's Windows market share. Do you think Microsoft will come and negotiate with you fairly, offering 30% of their stock for this operating system? I don't think so. Microsoft will use all sorts of tactics to pressure the small company, from government level, international relations, patents, and other aspects that you can't even imagine. They'll try to acquire the company or the technology at a very low price. If you refuse, you'll face endless lawsuits, and Microsoft has the money to drag you down for years, until your product can't be sold in Europe, America, or even domestically. This is not just an example, it's actually happened more than once.
Even if the powerful countries are blind, pretending not to see Liu Yi killing on the mainland, overturning their various businesses and privileges, then Liu Yi still has a problem that is more headache-inducing, which is how to treat these people of the same clan and kind. The Qing government will definitely not hand over power willingly, so it would be one battle after another, from south to north, all the way to Beijing or Northeast China. Although Liu Yi can say this is for the future of the broad masses of laboring people, for resisting various oppressions, etc., war, no matter what title it is crowned with, is still war. War means cities destroyed, good fields laid waste, families broken and people dead, countless deaths and injuries, after turning the entire mainland into a mess, then standing on the ruins to declare victory to the survivors, and then burying one's head to lick one's wounds.
This victory is still assumed to be completed under the condition that the great powers do not intervene. If the great powers also join this war for their own national interests, then who will be the winner in the end, Liu cannot figure it out. In Liu's view, Asia in this era is not only a country with vast lands ruled by the Qing dynasty to develop, rather than sharpening one's head and drilling into this big swamp, it is better to look elsewhere, there are more and broader places to expand.
As for whether going to these places would lead to war, that's not something Liu Ye needs to consider. In an environment where one has to rely on war and invasion to survive, it's easier to go out and kill others than to stay at home and fight each other. Moreover, humans have a common disease, which is always thinking that other nations should think like themselves in order to be reasonable. If not, they try every means to change them. At first, they preach, then they use tricks, and finally, if all else fails, they take up arms. Generally, the first two steps are ineffective, and the final result is often a bloody battle.
As for the term "patriotism", Liu Fei thinks that a sentence he read in his previous life is very interesting: "Patriotism is making you believe that this country is superior to all other countries just because you were born here."
