Chapter 43: A Thread of Clue

  Before Huang Guohua returned to Beijing, Ji Youguo met separately with Russian Foreign Minister Tyutkov who had come especially for the visit.

  Five years ago, Giok Chol worried about Russia's influence.

  Now, Ji Youguo only needs to take care of Russia's feelings.

  In the past five years, Sino-Russian trade has risen from less than $60 billion in 2009 to $230 billion in 2014, an increase of nearly three times. Last year, China's exports to Russia were $96.7 billion, while imports from Russia were $134.2 billion, with a deficit of nearly $40 billion. As a result, China has become Russia's largest trading partner and its second-largest trading partner after the EU.

  On the surface, Russia seems to have gained an advantage in Sino-Russian trade, but in reality, the issue should be viewed from a reverse perspective.

  Without the tens of billions of dollars it receives from China each year, Russia's economy would struggle to get out of its current predicament and would not only fail to achieve an annual growth rate of 4.5 percent but also fall into a long-term decline. The main items that China imports from Russia are oil, natural gas, minerals, timber and other raw materials, while the main products it exports to Russia are electric vehicles, industrial machinery and electronic equipment.

  Huge bilateral trade makes Russia have to care about China's attitude.

  At the same time, not only did the total trade volume between India and Russia decline sharply, but even the once-thriving arms trade was affected. Five years ago, India was Russia's largest arms importer. Due to Russia's stagnation in military R&D and the disputes over the modernization of the aircraft carrier "Vikramaditya", India gradually shifted its arms import policy from single-source dependence on Russia to diversification, seeking weapons and equipment from other countries such as Israel, France, Germany, and even the United States.

  Under this ebb and flow, Russia's attitude towards China and India has also undergone subtle changes.

  For example, when the "Future Tactical Airborne Aircraft System" (PAKFA) was first being developed, Russia tried to bring China on board due to a lack of development funds. However, China was rejected due to India's opposition. Three years ago, Russia launched its "Next Generation Heavy Air Superiority Fighter" program and sought cooperation with China from the start, excluding India from joint development and forcing it to seek air superiority fighters from Western countries.

  As Sino-Russian relations warm up again, China must take care of Russia's feelings. Otherwise, after Russia voted against it in the Security Council, Huang Guohua would not have proposed a draft resolution condemning India on behalf of the United Nations.

  From Zhukov, Kyu Koku understood Russia's attitude.

  No matter what the outcome is, as long as it does not harm Russia's interests, Russia will not intervene.

  After seeing off Ji Youkuo, Ji Yuguo asked Wang Yuanqing to go to the airport and pick up Huang Guowei.

  "The US attitude is very clear." Huang Guowei plucked up the courage, on his way back to China, he was thinking about how to report to the leader. "The US hopes that we can make greater efforts in urging India and Pakistan to cease fire, but they have not made any substantial guarantees."

  "Two-faced and three-bladed." Ji Youguo smiled faintly. "Just like the war on terror, what America cares about is only its own interests."

  "We've already thought of that," Huang Guowei picked up his water cup, "The UK and France are also inclined towards the US, thinking we shouldn't provide aid to Pakistan."

  "Britain and France are just America's lackeys, there's nothing worth discussing."

  "Russia's attitude was originally quite tough, after casting a veto vote, they no longer expressed their opinions." Huang Guowei smiled and shook his head, "I don't know what kind of medicine they are selling in their gourd."

  "I just met with Zyuganov and talked with him for over two hours."

  "Was there a harvest?" Huang Guowei put down his water cup.

  "What else can we want apart from saving face?" Ji Youguo handed a cigarette to the Foreign Minister. "Zyuganov came specifically to visit, hoping that we wouldn't overdo it, just teach India a lesson and not let things escalate. In short, he's worried that war will harm Russia's interests."

  "They didn't even participate in the war, what impact could they have?"

  "Russia did not participate in the war, but Russian-made weapons are the main characters on the battlefield. After this battle, I'm afraid no country will buy Russia's military equipment."

  Huang Guowei was taken aback and then broke into a bitter smile.

  Apart from energy and industrial raw materials, arms are Russia's main export goods. Last year, Russia surpassed Britain to become the world's second-largest arms exporter after the United States. If arms sales fail, it will cause Russia tens of billions of dollars in losses every year.

  "Why don't we have a good talk with Russia?"

  "What's there to talk about?" Ji Youguo glanced at the cautious Foreign Minister. "The level of Russian weapons and equipment is what they know best in their hearts. The fighter jets from 40 years ago, modified and remade into dozens of models, were sold in various ways for hundreds of aircraft. At that time, we proposed upgrading and replacing them, but Russia was not very willing. Moreover, India's defeat is not just a problem with weapons and equipment, but also a problem with personnel quality. With the level of the Indian Air Force, even if they are equipped with advanced fighter jets provided by the US, the result will not be much better."

  "The problem is that Russia has a close relationship with us, and if it gets awkward, it will be hard to get along in the future."

  "Don't worry, when things really get hot, the Russian president will look for me, not you."

  Huang Guowei sighed secretly, this foreign minister indeed didn't have too much right to speak.

  "Tell me about your private meeting with Lin Qi, he didn't just invite you for coffee, did he?"

  "The instant coffee in the US Secretary of State's office is really not good." Huang Guowei immediately smiled, "But Lin Qi is indeed a difficult person to deal with."

  "Yes! It was he who went to see Santos and pushed India into the fire pit."

  "Overall, Lynch hopes we can gain some insight."

  "Retreat?" Ji Youguo immediately furrowed his brow, "Can the US just indulge then?"

  "That's not what he meant." Huang Guowei extinguished the cigarette butt, "What he means is that if we show some restraint, the US will also consider China and Pakistan's interests on the issue of aid to India."

  "What does it mean? Is the US preparing to 'withdraw'?"

  Huang Guowei shook his head. "On the surface it means that, but I think the problem can't be looked at in this way."

  Ji Youguo rubbed his chin, he had the same feeling too.

  "Judging from Lin Qi's tone, this matter is not decided by him. He is just representing the President to negotiate with me, or rather, he hopes I will pass on his message to you."

  "Jia Pei must be plotting something." Ji Youguo stood up and paced back and forth in front of Huang Guowei, "What information did he reveal during the meeting?"

  "There's nothing specific, Lin Qi's mouth is very tight, I tentatively brought up a few key issues, he all evaded."

  "That's really all he can do." Ji Youguo nodded slightly, "In what aspects does he hope we reduce our aid to Pakistan?"

  "Primarily personnel, hoping we withdraw our military personnel fighting in Afghanistan."

  Upon hearing this, Ji Youguo stopped in his tracks and gazed at Huang Guowei for a few seconds before bursting into laughter.

  "Head of state, is it you..."

  "This is called throwing a stone to find the way." Ji Youguo sat down, "Lin Qi raised this question, wanting to know how many combatants we had invested in Pakistan. At that time, how did you answer him?"

  "Going through the motions, it's just diplomatic rhetoric."

  "What's been leaked?"

  "Of course not, and I really don't know how many people went to Pakistan, what's good to reveal?"

  Ji Youguo was taken aback for a moment, then smiled and asked: "Little Huang, aren't you blaming me?"

  "Your Excellency, I didn't say that. Actually, I know you don't let me participate because you want me to appear more natural in diplomatic occasions and avoid revealing secrets."

  "It's fine if you understand, I didn't intentionally exclude you from the decision-making circle either, otherwise I wouldn't have let you go to the United Nations."

  Huang Guowei nodded, he was very clear about Ji Youguo's character and more believed in Ji Youguo's decision-making ability.

  "Although no valuable agreement was reached, your gains this time are not small. At least I know... " Ji Youguo suddenly stopped and thought for a moment before saying, "Don't you think that Lin Qi is not only intentionally probing our bottom line but also testing our attitude?"

  "What attitude? What kind of attitude?"

  "What would be our attitude if America were to send combat troops to India?"

  "Are you saying...?" Huang Guowei was startled, "Lin Qi came to me to discuss this matter, wanting to know if we would react strongly to the US sending combat troops to India?"

  Ji Youguo nodded slightly. "Otherwise, why would he deliberately bring up this issue? It's not a secret that we sent combat troops to Pakistan and it was announced publicly long ago. The US intelligence system is not a fool, even if they can't figure out the scale of aid from us, they should have gained something from the Pakistani side. If Lynch really wants us to withdraw our troops in Pakistan, he should put pressure on us instead of probing our bottom line."

  "Right, I really didn't think of that."

  "This shows that the US is ready and has already dispatched combat personnel to India."

  "Will the US join the war? Judging from the current situation, sending troops will only lead to an escalation of the war and direct confrontation with us. This is completely not in line with the interests of the United States, and Jia Pei (Xi Jinping) won't be stupid to that extent."

  "I know this much: if America really wanted to help India win this war, it would have acted long ago and wouldn't be dragging its feet until now."

  "What the US needs to do may just be sending a small combat force to India."

  Ji Youguo nodded and said, "The problem is that the American soldiers are not Rambo in the movies. Sending a small number of combat troops, even if they are all special forces, cannot change the course of the war. The US is doing this not to help India win the war, but for another purpose."

  Huang Guowei immediately furrowed his brow, and for a moment, he couldn't think of what purpose the United States could have.

  After a moment of contemplation, Ji Youguo picked up the phone and dialed the number of the General Staff Headquarters.

  It's useless to speculate, but if we can capture American soldiers on the battlefield of India and Pakistan, not only can we understand America's intentions, but also grasp America's handle, preparing a trump card for future negotiations.